China's copper imports fell to 196,926 tonnes in January

Thursday, Feb 25, 2010

China's imports of refined copper fell to 196,926 tonnes in January from 244,013 tonnes in December, while primary aluminium imports fell to 40,059 tonnes from 42,106 tonnes, customs data showed on Wednesday.

The decline in imports was in line with expectations after preliminary data issued earlier this month showed a 20.9 percent month-on-month decline in imports of overall unwrought copper, including anode, alloy and semi-finished products, while unwrought aluminium imports slipped 16.6 percent.

However, copper imports rose 9 percent from January last year, while zinc inflows leapt 132 percent on the year, with investors bringing metals in in response to attractive arbitrages.

"The copper number is reasonably consistent with what we have seen over the past six months or so, and signals still strong growth in China despite worries about tightening," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at National Australia Bank. "We are seeing metal production coming back, which can cap import demand for some metals, but this highlights that they can't supply themselves with enough copper." For graphics showing China copper and zinc imports, Westmore pointed to attractive arbitrage opportunities -- buying metal cheaply on the London Metal Exchange and selling it at a profit in Shanghai -- as one of the reasons for the inflows, which, in the case of copper, are well above the average of 126,000 tonnes a month since 2002.

For a graphic showing the arbitrage for copper and zinc, Analysts expect copper imports to remain around the 200,000 tonne-per-month mark, soft versus the huge levels seen last year when China glutted itself on cut-price commodities.

"Chinese imports will be lower this year than last. Prices are lower than at this time last year and China took the opportunity to scoop up cheap metal that they knew they would need," said Nick Moore, head of mining strategy at RBS Global Banking & Markets.

"They are structurally short of copper, so could buy all they wanted. In the case of aluminium and zinc, they are longer and the removal of China's appetite becomes a major headwind." China is the world's top consumer of copper but does not produce enough to meet demand from its large manufacturing sector and to cover the needs of the power sector, which is enjoying a state-sponsored boom in electricity investment.

China is the world's top consumer and producer of primary aluminium. Its imports hit a record in the first half of last year after the government bought the metal for stockpiles.

 

Source: Reuters